Articles from the Experts

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Trading Block: Vol creeping back in as Brexit woes. Bad numbers and Walmart spooking the market. Buffett likes financials. WMT, NVDA earnings.

Odd Block: TSLA Flash Poll

The top 10 TSLA options positions are DOMINATED by OTM puts. Only one Call position makes the list. Which one is it? No cheating - what does your gut tell you?

  • Feb 450 Call
  • Dec 365 Call
  • Jan 2020 465 Call
  • Jan 600 Call

Mail Block: It's crystal ball time! Where will $VIX bet at 1pm central - aka the end of the show - next Friday? See if you can beat the Volatility Views crew.

  • Here: 17-18.50
  • Higher: 18.51 – 20
  • Even Higher: >20
  • Lower: 15.50-16.99

Question from J3dingle - Hi Mark, Thought you might like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQa-sx39Ltw. I wonder how he'd vote in March Madness! Joseph

Around the Block/This Week in the Markets:

  • Nov 16 - Industrial Production, Treasury International Capital

Bears Stay in Control


U.S. markets showed strength on Wednesday’s open before turning south afterwards and showing weakness for the 5-straight session. The rebound off the lows was slightly encouraging but October lows remain in play.

A death-cross has officially formed in the small-caps for the first time in 2 1/2 years and remains a concern.


Meanwhile, volatility spiked to its highest level of the month but held key levels of resistance.

The Nasdaq was down 0.9% after testing an intraday low of 7,101. Late October support at 7,100-7,050 held with a close 7,000 likely leading to additional selling pressure.

The S&P 500 was lower by 0.8% following the pullback to 2,685. Upper support at 2,700-2,675 held with risk to 2,625-2,600 and October lows on a close below the latter.

The Dow declined 0.8% after trading to an intraday low of 24,935. Fresh and upper support at 25,000-24,800 held but the close below the 200-day moving average was a slightly bearish development.

The Russell 2000 also fell 0.8% after tapping a session low of 1,494. Upper support at 1,500-1,490 was breached with a close below the latter likely getting 1,480-1,460 in play.

Communication Services gained 0.5% and was the only sector that closed in positive territory.

Financials tanked 1.4% and Technology was down 1.2% to lead sector weakness. Utilities fell 1% while Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary stumbled 0.8%.


ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Aramark (ARMK) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird
CAE (CAE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
TD Ameritrade (AMTD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley


Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
Tenneco (TEN) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley


EARNINGS

Thursday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: ​​Brady (BRC), Eros International (EROS), Ideal Power (IPWR), JC Penney (JCP), Manchester United (MANU), Pointer Telocation (PNTR), Walmart (WMT)

After the close: Applied Materials (AMAT), Digi International (DGII), Globant (GLOB), Matthews International (MATW). Nordstrom (JWN), Nvidia (NVDA), Post Holdings (POST), Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)



UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS 
Thursday's Economic Reports (EST):
Jobless Claims - 8:30am
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey - 8:30am
Retail Sales - 8:30am
Empire State Manufacturing Survey - 8:30am
Import and Export Prices - 8:30am
Business Inventories -10:00am


METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,210.10 an ounce, up $8.70
Silver settled at $14.08 an ounce, up $0.10

Copper finished at $2.71 a pound, up $0.02

Crude Oil is at $56.11 a barrel, up $0.42

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $5.98 down $0.89




  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell


Bears Stay In Control

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The post Clone of 11-12-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Bears Stay Aggressive as VIX Clears 20


U.S. markets showed continued weakness on Monday as a rise in the U.S. dollar and lingering worries about global trade weighed on sentiment. Oil price concerns also played a role after Saudi Arabia said it would cut its oil production, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it is also considering a more sweeping reduction of output.


The major indexes hit their lows late in the day on reports the White House was circulating a draft report on auto tariffs. Volatility spiked nearly 18% while closing back above a key level of resistance.

The Nasdaq plunged 2.8% after trading to an intraday low of 7,193. Fresh and late October support at 7,200-7,150 held with the index giving back its gains for the month.

The S&P 500 sank 2% with the low reaching 2,722 on the close back below the 200-day moving average. Upper support at 2,725-2,700 held by a point with risk to 2,650-2,600 on a close below the latter.

The Dow tanked 2.3% following the pullback to 25,340 while closing back below its 50-day moving average. Fresh and upper support at 25,400-25,200 failed to hold into the close with a move below the latter being a continued bearish signal.

The Russell 2000 fell 2% after tapping a session low of 1,518. Lower support at 1,525-1,520 was breached and keeps further risk towards 1,500-1,490 in play.

Real Estate gained 0.2% and was the only sector that showed strength.

Technology easily paced sector weakness after plummeting 3.5%. Energy was off 2.2% while Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were down 2.1%, respectively.



ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Armstrong World (AWI) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill
Crocs (CROX) upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna
Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus


AB InBev (BUD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi


EARNINGS

Tuesday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: ​Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Beazer Homes (BZH), Cae (CAE), Eyenovia (EYEN), Home Depot (HD), National Vision Holdings (EYE), Optinose (OPTN), Tyson Foods (TSN)

After the close: ​Boxlight (BOXL), Cardlytics (CDLX), Five Point Holdings (FPH), iCad (ICAD), PetIQ (PETQ), Resideo Technologies (REZI), Switch (SWCH), Tilray (TLRY), Wix.com (WIX)



UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS 
Tuesday's Economic Reports (EST):
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - 6:00am
Redbook - 8:55am
Treasury Budget - 2:00pm


METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,203.50 an ounce, down $5.10
Silver settled at $14.01 an ounce, down $0.13

Copper finished at $2.68 a pound, unchanged

Crude Oil is at $58.86 a barrel, down $1.01

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $6.91 down $0.15



  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell


Bears Stay Aggressive as VIX Clears 20

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The post 11-12-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Trading Block: A look at the week in trading (so far).

  • Selloff mode is back - somewhat.
  • Apple iPhone XR slack demand spooking markets.
  • GE continues to decline on power weakness.
  • Vol creeping back in.
  • Equities: Growth in US corporate earnings expectations remains strong.

Odd Block: Tesla put summary Opening call love in (ZNGA) - from 11/5. Opening call love in (ETM) - from 11/1. Put love in (BCS).

Strategy Block: Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses adjusting a short call and short put.

Around the Block: What do we think will shake the market this week?

Bulls Get Weekly Win but Technical Outlook
Remains Weak



U.S. markets ended the week on a sour note as a plunge in oil prices and uneasiness about the housing market resurrected fears of an uncertain path for the economy, both here and abroad. Oil is near its lowest level in eight months after dipping below the $60 level for the first time since February.
The damage was mostly limited

as th major indexes closed off  their
 lows while finishing higher for the week.  However, the weakness in Tech and the small-caps remain a concern.


The damage was mostly limited as the major indexes closed off their lows while finishing higher for the week. However, the weakness in Tech and the small-caps remain a concern.

The Russell 2000 sank 1.8% after testing a low of 1,539. Fresh and upper support at 1,540-1,535 held with a close below the latter being a very bearish development. Note: A death cross is close to forming with the 50-day moving average in danger of falling below the 200-day moving average. This is typically a bearish signal for lower lows.

The Nasdaq plummeted 1.7% following the pullback to 7,349. Prior and upper support at 7,350-7,300 was breached on the close back below the 200-day moving average.

For the week, the Nasdaq eked out a 0.7% gain while the Russell 2000 climbed 0.1%.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.9% while bottoming at 2,764. Upper support at 2,800-2,775 was breached with the 200-day moving average holding into the closing bell.

The Dow was lower by 0.8% after testing a midday low of 25,882. Fresh and lower support at 26,000-25,800 and the 50-day moving average held on the close below the former.

The Dow was up 2.8% for the week and the S&P 500 added 2.1%.

Consumer Staples rose 0.5% to led sector strength. Utilities and Real Estate edged up 0.2% and 0.1%.

Communication Services tanked 2.1% to pace sector weakness while Technology was hammered for a 1.7% loss.


ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Axon (AAXN) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird
Cree (CREE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs​
Monster Beverage (MNST) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman Sachs


Discovery (DISCA) downgraded to In-Line from Outperform
Skyworks (SWKS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Yelp (YELP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James


EARNINGS

Monday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: ​​​Aecom Technology (ACM), Autohome (ATHM), Kamada (KMDA), Luby’s (LUB), Nordic American Tanker (NAT), Qutoutiao (QTT), Urogen Pharma (URGN)

After the close: ​​AmeriGas Propane (APU), Cypress Energy Partner (CELP), EnSync (ESNC), Focus Financial Partner (FOCS), Kornit Digital (KRNT), Navigator Holdings (NVGS), Roan Resources (ROAN), Unum Therapeutics (UMRX), Veritone (VERI), YY (YY)



UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS 
Monday's Economic Reports (EST):
No major announcements.



METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,208.50 an ounce, down $16.50
Silver settled at $14.14 an ounce, down $0.28

Copper finished at $2.68 a pound, down $0.06

Crude Oil is at $59.87 a barrel, down $0.80

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $7.06 down $0.38



  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell

Bulls Get Weekly Win but Technical Outlook
                          Remains Weak

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The post 11-11-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Trading Block: A look back at the week in options trading

Goodbye backwardation!

Earnings Highlights for the Week

  • Monday - Sysco, Mylan, Marriott
  • Tuesday - Eli Lilly, CVS Health, Gogo, Etsy, Match, Papa John's
  • Wednesday - Groupon, Roku, Square
  • Thursday - Dropbox, Walt Disney
  • Equities: Growth in US corporate earnings expectations remains strong.

Odd Block: TSLA put summary, calls trading in Ctrip.com Internation Ltd (CTRP), and call love in Cornerstone OnDemand, Inc. (CSOD)

Mail Block: Option block flash poll

All of these downgrades are crushing AAPL. It's back below $1T. Heresy! Are you part of the AAPL faithful or do you have your bear claws out? Quite simply - do you think AAPL will be above $200 one year from now?

  • 72% - Yes: $Above $200
  • 15% - No: Below $200
  • 13% - I'm sick of $AAPL

Options question of the week - We always like to take the pulse of our audience. This week we're checking in on your favorite strategies. What is your go-to #options strategy?

  • Butterflies
  • Covered Call/Short Put
  • Verticals, call or put
  • Calendars/Diagonals

Listener questions and comments:

  • Question from NVD2 - Are we now out of the danger zone? Where does the danger zone officially start?
  • Question from Helio - Uncle Mike back in full bull mode? What's his biggest holding?
  • Question from Ilya - Why is iron condor the iron fly for cowards? Don't get it.
  • Question from Mark Brant - Sold SNAP 45d ATM Puts when it had the highest ATM IV of any stock! ATM IB is the one to watch for premium selling IMO.

Around the Block/This Week in the Markets:

  • Nov 9: PPI, Consumer Sentiment

Bulls Make a Strong Statement


U.S. markets opened higher and stayed strong following the results from the midterm elections, which played out just as Wall Street had expected. Republicans held the majority in the Senate, while Democrats gained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, raising the prospect of gridlock in D.C. between the two sides.

Lost in the hoopla, the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting today, with a decision due Thursday afternoon. 

The market isn’t expecting a change in policy, but traders will be looking for fresh signals from the U.S. central bank on its plans for the rest of the year and beyond.


The Nasdaq zoomed 2.6% while reaching a peak of 7,572. Lower resistance at 7,500-7,525 and the 200-day moving average was cleared and gets fresh hurdles at 7,600-7,650 in play.

The Dow jumped 2.1% after testing a midday high of 26,200. Fresh and lower resistance at 26,000-26,200 was cleared and held with the move above the 50-day moving average being a bullish signal.

The S&P 500 also soared 2.1% following the push to 2,815 intraday. Fresh and lower resistance at 2,800-2,825 was cleared and held on the move above the 200-day moving average.

The Russell 2000 was higher by 1.7% after trading an intraday high of 1,582. Upper resistance at 1,575-1,580 was cleared and held into the close to set up a possible run towards 1,600.

Healthcare and Technology led sector strength after surging 3% and 2.9%, respectively. Consumer Discretionary advanced 2.7%.

There were no sector laggards for a 2nd-straight session.


ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Target (TGT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen
Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
USA Compression (USAC) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Frontier Communications (FTR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
Mindbody (MB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Zillow (Z) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Zelman


EARNINGS

Thursday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: ​AstraZeneca (AZN), Cardinal Health (CAH), DR Horton (DHI), Endo International (ENDP), Fly Leasing (FLY), Gannett (GCI), Johnson Controls (JCI), Magna International (MGA), Nomad Foods (NOMD), Olympic Steel (ZEUS), Perrigo (PRGO), Scientific Games (SGMS), Telus (TU), Worldpay (WP)

After the close: Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Bojangles’ (BOJA), Clearwater Paper (CLW), Dropbox (DBX), Funko (FNKO), Hanger (HNGR), Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ), InnerWorkings (INWK), Joint (JYNT), One Stop Systems (OSS), PDF Solutions (PDFS), Redfin (RDFN), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Trade Desk (TTD), ViewRay (VRAY), Walt Disney (DIS), Yelp (YELP)



UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS
Thursday's Economic Reports (EST):
Jobless Claims - 8:30am
FOMC Meeting Announcement - 2:00pm


METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,228.70 an ounce, up $2.40
Silver settled at $14.57 an ounce, up $0.07

Copper finished at $2.75 a pound, up $0.02

Crude Oil is at $62.72 a barrel, up $0.51

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $7.72 up $0.23



  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell

Bulls Make a Strong Statement

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The post 11-07-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Near-Term Resistance Levels Cleared


U.S. markets opened mixed while spending the majority of the session trading in positive territory afterwards. There was some late day weakness before a strong rally to session highs into the close and ahead of the midterms elections.

The outcome should help ease the near-term uncertainty of how Congress is controlled but other headwinds remains. Volatility is still giving a neutral reading although the bears have been in control since early October.


The Dow was up 0.7% after trading to an intraday peak of 25,651. Lower resistance at 25,600-25,800 was cleared and held with a move above the latter and the 50-day moving average signaling additional strength.

The S&P 500 soared 0.6% following the run to 2,756. Upper resistance at 2,740-2,750 was cleared with continued closes above 2,765-2,775 and the 200-day moving average being a more bullish development.

The Nasdaq snapped a 2-session losing streak after rising 0.6% while trading to a high of 7,400. Lower resistance at 7,400-7,450 failed to hold with more important hurdles at 7,500-7,525 and the 200-day moving average.

The Russell 2000 also climbed 0.6% after testing an intraday high of 1,557. Near-term resistance at 1,560 held for a 3rd-straight session with a close above this level getting 1,675-1,680 in play.

Materials and Industrials were the strongest sectors after rallying 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively. and 1.4%. Utilities added 0.7% while Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate were all higher by 0.6%.

There were no sector laggards.


ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Buckingham
iRobot (IRBT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Under Armour (UA, UAA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Encana (ECA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Hilton (HLT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Sell from Hold at DZ Bank


EARNINGS

Wednesday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: ​21st Century Fox (FOXA), Barrett Business Services (BBSI), Cars.com (CARS), Dean Foods (DF), Dish Network (DISH), Groupon (GRPN), Humana (HUM), Kelly Services (KELYA), Meet Group (MEET), Michael Kors (KORS), Office Depot (ODP), Radware (RDWR), Southern Company (SO), Tecnoglass (TGLS), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI), Wolverine World Wide (WWW)

After the close: New York Times (NYT) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays , Valvoline (VVV) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill, 
Western Union (WU) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo



UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS
Wednesday's Economic Reports (EST):
FOMC Meeting (Begins)
MBA Mortgage Applications - 7:00am
Consumer Credit - 3:00pm


METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,226.30 an ounce, down $6.00
Silver settled at $14.50 an ounce, down $0.15

Copper finished at $2.73 a pound, down $0.03

Crude Oil is at $62.21 a barrel, down $0.56

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $7.49 up $0.43



  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell

Near-Term Resistance Levels Cleared

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The post 11-06-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Trading Block: Earnings Highlights for the Week

  • Monday - Sysco, Mylan, Marriott
  • Tuesday - Eli Lilly, CVS Health, Gogo, Etsy, Match, Papa John's
  • Wednesday - Groupon, Roku, Square,
  • Thursday - Dropbox, Walt Disney
  • Apple screwed the pooch:
  • Apple tumbles 7% after earnings on light guidance.
  • Market cap back below $1T

Plus, OCC Sets All Time Monthly Volume Record - OCC Clears Record Monthly Volume in October: Over 567 million contracts cleared in October, up 48.9 percent compared to 2017

Odd Block: Put summary in Tesla Inc (TSLA), line in the sand puts in (TRU), opening call love in (ZNGA) and call love in (ETM).

Strategy Block: Tosaw discusses the knockout collar strategy

Mail Block: Options question of the week
We always like to take the pulse of our audience. This week we're checking in on your favorite strategies. What is your go-to options strategy?

  • Butterflies
  • Covered Call/Short Put
  • Verticals -call or put
  • Calendars/Diagonals

Around the Block: Midterms elections 2018 tomorrow!

VIX Holds 20 for a 3rd-Straight Session


U.S. markets got off to a mixed start for the week following ongoing trade concerns and ahead of the midterm elections. Additionally, FOMC meetings on Wednesday and Thursday this week weighed on investor sentiment.

China’s President Xi Jinping’s came back with some harsh words over the weekend for the U.S. stance on trade while the midterms are expected to shift the congressional balance of power. Volatility stayed slightly elevated but closed below major resistance at 20 for a 3rd-straight session.


The Dow gained 0.8% after holding positive territory for the majority of the session and reaching a peak of 25,505. Fresh and lower resistance at 25,600-25,800 held with a close above the latter and the 50-day moving average being a more bullish development.

The S&P 500 traded in a tight 27-point range while adding 0.6%. Resistance at 2,740-2,750 was split but held on the run to 2,744 with continued closes above the latter being a slightly bullish development.

The Russell 2000 dipped a half-point, or 0.03% after testing a midday low of 1,534. Fresh support at 1,535-1,520 was breached with a close below the latter likely leading to additional selling pressure.

The Nasdaq dropped 0.4% following the pullback to 7,255. Near-term support at 7,250-7,200 held with a move below the latter being a very bearish development.

Energy and Real Estate showed the most sector strength after jumping 1.7%. Financials and Utilities were up 1.6% and 1.4%.

Communication Services and Technology were the only sector laggards after falling 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.


ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Buckingham
iRobot (IRBT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Under Armour (UA, UAA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Encana (ECA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Hilton (HLT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Sell from Hold at DZ Bank


EARNINGS

Tuesday's earnings announcements (EST): 

Before the open: Armstrong Flooring (AFI), Boise Cascade (BCC), CVS Health (CVS), Eli Lilly (LLY), Emerson Electric (EMR), Federal Signal (FSS), GreenSky (GSKY), Heska (HSKA), LGI Homes (LGIH), Malibu Boats (MBUU), Novanta (NOVT), ParkOhio Holdings (PKOH), Ralph Lauren (RL), Sotherly Hotels (SOHO), TopBuild (BLD), Unit (UNT), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

After the close: Ashland (ASH), Belmond (BEL), Community Healthcare (CHCT), Devon Energy (DVN), Diodes (DIOD), Energen (EGN), Etsy (ETSY), Five9 (FIVN), GoDaddy (GDDY), HCI Group (HCI), Inogen (INGN), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Lending Club (LC), Match Group (MTCH), Neenah Paper (NP), Papa John’s International (PZZA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Quidel (QDEL), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB), ScanSource (SCSC), TrueCar (TRUE), Wendy’s (WEN), Zillow Group (Z)




UPCOMING ECONOMIC NEWS
Tuesday's Economic Reports (EST):
Redbook - 8:55am
Jolts - 10:00am


METALS / OIL

Gold closed at $1,232.30 an ounce, down $1.00
Silver settled at $14.65 an ounce, down $0.11

Copper finished at $2.76 a pound, down $0.05

Crude Oil is at $62.77 a barrel, down $0.09

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $7.16 up $0.24



  I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!

   Todd Mitchell

VIX Holds 20 for a 3rd-Straight Session

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The post 11-05-2018 Todd’s Market Update appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

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