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At the moment, Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is up to nearly $62 as share and could run even higher, with new gaming consoles coming from Sony and Microsoft.  SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analysts have a buy rating on the stock, noting strong execution for recent releases like World of Warcraft Classic, Call of Duty: Mobile and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.


“If you’re a gamer, if you drop $400 to $500 for a console, you’re obviously going to buy some games, too,” said Jefferies analysts noted.  

In addition, “the video game console cycle tends to fuel stock (gains by video-game companies) …, not just for the console makers but for the game publishers as well. During the 12 months preceding major console launches in 2000, 2005, and 2013, shares of Activision, Take-Two and Electronic Arts beat the broad stock market by an average 26%,” according to Cowen.

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The post Extreme Option Profits Chart of Day…Activision Blizzard (ATVI) appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

The market capped off a strong week with another run to record highs on Friday as strong housing numbers helped sentiment. The small-caps struggled after closing the session lower but had the strongest week out of the major indexes.

The start of the 4Q earnings season was supported by strong numbers from the Big Banks and also also been a catalyst for higher highs. Volatility is still giving a bullish signal for the market after staying range bound throughout last week and will be a good clue going forward on when to lighten up positions.

The Dow reached a fresh all-time high of 29,373 while closing at 29,348 and could test 29,500 over the near-term on continued strength. The S&P 500 closed on its session peak of 3,329 and remains on track to trip 3,350.

The Nasdaq tapped a record high of 9,393 while closing at 9,388 and could see further upside towards the 9,500 level on continued momentum. The Russell 2000 closed just south of the 1,700 level after testing a session low of 1,697 with risk towards 1,685 on continued weakness.

Earnings will be a huge focus this week for the market but there is also the impeachment trial of President Trump that starts in DC on Tuesday. The market has mainly ignored the political theater and will likely continue to do so as impeachment seems highly unlikely.

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ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Pinterest (PINS) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
Qualcomm (QCOM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Western Digital (WDC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley (MS) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler
Twitter (TWTR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

MONDAY'S EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS  
Before the open: Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB), Comerica (CMA), Halliburton (HAL), Mercantile Bank (MBWM), Old National Bancorp (ONB), Peoples Bancorp (PEBO), PetMed Express (PETS), Signature Bank (SBNY), TAL Education Group (TAL)

After the close: Capital One Financial (COF), FB Financial (FBK), Fulton Financial (FULT), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), Navient (NAVI), Netflix (NFLX), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP), Renasant (RNST), ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS), SmartFinancial (SMBK), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), United Airlines (UAL), WSFS Financial (WSFS), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

TUESDAY'S ECONOMIC NEWS
Economic reports (EST): 8:00am
Redbook - 8:55am

METALS/ OIL
Gold closed at $1,560.330 an ounce,up $9.80
Silver settled at $18.07 an ounce,   up $0.13
Copper finished at $2.84 a pound, down $0.01
Crude Oil was at $58.81 a barrel,
up $0.30
Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $10.07, up $0.35


I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!


   Todd Mitchell


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The post Bulls Keep Weekly Momentum appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

The new year is not even three full weeks old, and already half a trillion dollars has been added to the S&P 500′s value. Some investors worry either the economy has to suddenly jolt into action or earnings have to surprisingly surge — two things unlikely to occur — in order to justify these kinds of gains.

The S&P 500 has soared 12% since the beginning of October. Not only does the rally defy many tried-and-true economic indicators, it also ignores the ongoing profits slump, leading many Wall Street strategists to urge caution.

“People are getting too optimistic in the short-term,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “We keep pricing in all this really good stuff that’s going to happen, but it has not shown up yet ...This market is in a full melt-up mode, and it would be foolish to try and stay in front of it.”

Perhaps the easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China unleashed animal spirits, or the Federal Reserve’s massive bond-buying is working its magic. But if the rally is purely driven by expectations for a rapid rebound in earnings growth and the global economy, this level of enthusiasm should elicit concerns.

‘Way ahead of its earnings’

The problem front and center is how investors are looking past the continuous earnings rout, betting on a snapback as soon as the first quarter of 2020.

CH 20200115_eps_vs_sp500_annotated.png

S&P 500 earnings are expected to drop by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking the first back-to-back quarterly decline since 2016, according to Refinitiv. Analysts project much higher earnings growth in 2020, a 6% increase in the first quarter.

“It just seems obvious to me that we’ve had a situation where earnings have gone nowhere and the markets have gone straight up,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. “I don’t want to call it a bubble yet but it’s moving in that direction. The market is way ahead of its earnings.”

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Detached from economic reality

The stock market and the economy are also telling two different stories, at least for now.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been contracting since August as exports dropped amid the China trade war. However, the gloomy readings on the key industry didn’t prompt investors to take shelters. Instead, stocks kept rising to new records.

CH 20200116_pmi_vs_sp500v2.png

While megacap tech giants lift the market higher, more economically sensitive pockets of the market continue to fall behind. S&P 500 materials and consumer discretionary only eked out 6% and 4% gains, respectively, in the past three months, versus the broad market’s 11% climb.

Meanwhile, a century-old classic tool known as Dow Theory has yet to confirm the rally is for real. The Dow Jones Transportation Average hasn’t hit new record highs with industrial stocks consistently underperforming over the past year. Many believe transportation stocks are a barometer of global economic activity and any rally without their support cannot be a long-lasting one.

Don’t fight the Fed?

Some strategists floated the theory that the rally is driven by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to providing liquidity in the short-term borrowing market for banks, known as the “repo” market.

On Oct. 11, the central bank announced it would begin purchasing $60 billion of Treasury bills a month to keep control over short-term rates. The magnitude of the purchases resembles the quantitative easing program the Fed conducted during and after the financial crisis.

CH 20200115_fed_balance_sp500_thru_jan_9_with_annotations.png

“The primary driving force behind the advance is increased liquidity/money flows — massive injections of funds into their systems by central banks,” David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Rosenberg Research, said in a note.

The increase in the Fed’s balance sheet has been in near lockstep with the stock market’s climb. The balance sheet has expanded 10% since October, while the S&P 500 shot up 12%, including notching its best fourth quarter since 2013.

“Whether one wants to call it QE or not, we believe this excess liquidity has suppressed volatility to extremely low levels,” Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note. “A liquidity driven bull market typically overshoots fair value.”

‘A euphoric mood’

The pillars of the record-long bull market are standing taller than ever. The top five U.S. companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook — now claim 18% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, the highest percentage ever, according to Morgan Stanley.

Apple is still doing the heavy lifting, soaring 12% in the past month and making it the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The bigger is also the better — The 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up 1.2% on average this year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Technical investors including Commodity Trading Advisors are adding to their long positions in S&P 500 futures “at a furious pace,” Nomura’s macro and quant strategist Masanari Takada said. CTAs are trend-following quants that trade futures contracts and commodity options.

“It appears to us that the market is letting itself slide back into a euphoric mood,” Takada said. “We think that this sprint to chase the market’s upward momentum is giving rise to a systematic market melt-up.”

To be sure, if the Fed keeps adding stimulus to the market and the economy gets a boost after the election is over, then perhaps the gains will be justified.

But November is still a ways off and a lot can happen between now and then, especially with an ongoing impeachment trial and growing geopolitical tensions.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/18/stocks-appear-detached-from-reality-rallying-in-anticipation-of-two-things-that-may-not-happen.html

Have a wonderful trading week! 

Todd Mitchell Trading Concepts

The post Stocks appear detached from reality, rallying for two things that may not happen appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

A year ago, Boeing posted record revenues topping $100 billion with hopes of delivering a chart-topping number of airplanes in 2019, including hundreds of 737 Max jetliners.

The news isn’t going to be so rosy on its fourth-quarter earnings call this year. Those bestselling planes were grounded worldwide in March after the second of two fatal crashes that claimed 346 lives. The crisis cost former CEO Dennis Muilenburg his job, prompted Boeing to suspend production of the planes, drove down orders to the lowest level in decades, hurt its supply chain, and wracked up costs that are now around $10 billion. Wall Street is expecting more bad news.

The Jan. 29 earnings call will be the first for new CEO Dave Calhoun, who took the helm on Monday, days after the company released a trove of shocking internal messages that showed employees dissing regulators and airlines and boasting about getting them to approve less time-consuming training. One showed employees complaining that Lion Air, the operator of the first 737 Max that crashed, wanted simulator training for pilots before they flew the planes.

Calhoun is tasked with cleaning up Boeing’s culture, improving employee morale and repairing damaged relationships with regulators and airlines.

“Many of our stakeholders are rightly disappointed in us, and it’s our job to repair these vital relationships,” Calhoun told Boeing employees on his first day. “We’ll do so through a recommitment to transparency and by meeting and exceeding their expectations. We will listen, seek feedback, and respond — appropriately, urgently and respectfully.”

Jeff Windau, industrials analyst at Edward Jones, said he hopes the call will shed some light on the company.

“It would be nice to get some candid comments,” he said. “I’m not expecting a date [of the return to service] but it would be nice to get some indication where they’re at.”

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Several Wall Street analysts now expect Boeing, which reports full-year and fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 29, to take additional charges related to the troubled airplane. The company took a $5.6 billion pretax charge in July to compensate airlines and other customers for the grounding, which is now in its 11th month.

“They’re going to have to pay more,” said Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. He estimates the total cost of the grounding could reach $20 billion — excluding any settlements from lawsuits from crash victims’ families — if the planes return by June or July. Epstein estimates that about 40% of Boeing’s profits last year came from the Max.

Moody’s Investors Service said it was putting Boeing’s debt on a review for a possible downgrade, less than a month after cutting its credit rating by one-notch, as the crisis wears on longer than expected. The lower the credit rating, the more expensive it is for Boeing to borrow. Boeing, which declined to comment on a potential charge, has previously said it would tap the debt markets if it needs more cash to cover the costs of the crisis.

Sheila Kahyaoglu, aerospace and defense analyst at Jefferies, estimated this week that the charges for aircraft customers’ compensation is likely to rise to $11 billion, and that some of that will be reported later this month. That’s assuming the planes return to service in April, she said.

The Wall Street estimates for its earnings vary widely — from a loss of 23 cents a share to a profit of as much as $2.52 a share, according to analysts polled by Refinitiv. On average, analysts expect the Chicago-based company to report a profit of $1.53 a share — a 72% decline from a year earlier. They estimated a more than 26% drop in revenue to $20.8 billion.

Earlier this month, Boeing threw airline customers another curve ball: It’s recommending additional simulator training for pilots on the Max, a reverse of its previous stance and a step that promises to further delay the planes return to service and drive up costs.

As of Thursday, all U.S. airlines with Maxes in their fleets — American, Southwest and United — have pulled the planes from their schedules until early June, a delay that’s threatening to last until the peak travel season of late spring and the summer.

Analysts are also looking for news on how Boeing will manage its supply chain. Spirit Aerosystems, which makes fuselages and other parts for the planes, announced initial job cuts of 2,800 people last week. Moody’s downgraded its debt to junk territory.

Even the planned pause in production won’t stop the cash drain and will cost Boeing $1 billion a month, estimates J.P. Morgan.

“It doesn’t give you the warm and fuzzies when Spirit lays off 2,800 people,” said BofA’s Epstein. Suppliers are walking a tightrope with the 737 Max, because they don’t want to lack workers when Boeing can resume production. “It’s a tight job market and I’m sure there are a lot to companies that would like to hire them,” Epstein added.

Investors are also closely watching Calhoun for cues about Boeing’s bigger picture. The company has faced problems with its KC-46 refueling tanker. Because it’s hobbled by the 737 Max issues, Boeing hasn’t been able to move forward with a new middle-market airplane, giving a bigger lead to rival Airbus, which recently won orders for its forthcoming long-range, single-aisle plane from airlines including American and United. And the scrutiny of the Max could become more time consuming when regulators review its wide-body Boeing 777X.

Source https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/737-max-crisis-could-cost-boeing-as-much-as-20-billion-wall-street.html

I hope this helps in your trading, have a wonderful day!

The post Wall Street expects Boeing to take another big, ugly charge on 737 Max. BofA estimates total cost of crisis as high as $20 billion appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

The January melt-up rally continued on Thursday as the major indexes set another round of record highs. Solid bank earnings and healthy economic news helped fuel sentiment as overbought levels from 2018 remain in play.

The smart money is still enjoying the upside but is also selling selective stocks while preparing for a February fade. The market is closed on Monday so there could be some profit taking ahead of the 3-day weekend.

The Dow tested an all-time high of 29,300 while closing at 29,297 and could make a run to 29,500 on continued strength. The S&P 500 closed at 3,316 after tapping a record high of 3,317 and could test 3,350 on continued strength.

The Russell 2000 went out at 1,705 after testing a new 52-week high of 1,706 and could clear 1,725 on continued momentum. The Nasdaq settled at its session peak of 9,357 and remains on course for a possible trip towards the 9,400 level.

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ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

iRobot (IRBT) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
Pentair (PNR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs
TransAlta (TAC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Diageo (DEO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

FRIDAY'S EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS  
Before the open: Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Fastenal (FAST), First Horizon National (FHN), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Kansas City Southern Industries (KSU), Regions Financial (RF), Schlumberger (SLB), State Street (STT)

After the close: None

FRIDAY'S ECONOMIC NEWS
Housing Starts - 8:30am
Building Permits - 8:30am
Industrial Production - 9:15am
Jolts - 10:00am
Consumer Sentiment - 10:00am
Baker-Hughes Rig Count - 1:00pm

METALS/ OIL
Gold closed at $1,550.50 an ounce,down $3.50
Silver settled at $17.94 an ounce,   down $0.06
Copper finished at $2.85 a pound, down $0.02
Crude Oil was at $58.51 a barrel,
up $0.55
Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $9.72, down $0.28


I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!


   Todd Mitchell


Not sure the best way to get started?

Follow these 3 simple steps ...

Step #1: Get These FREE Reports & Videos

Options INCOME  Profits   8 Video  Series    Habits that Kill Traders...



Step #2: Enroll in an Advisory or Educational Program
Premium Advisories | Featured  Educational  Programs 



Step #3: Connect with The Community
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The post Another Breakout to Record Highs appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Option Block 870: Crazy Calls and Even Crazier Dividends

  • HOST:  MARK LONGO, THE OPTIONS INSIDER
  • CO-HOST: ANDREW GIOVINAZZI, OPTION PIT
  • CO-HOST: MIKE TOSAW, ST. CHARLES WEALTH MANAGEMENT

TRADING BLOCK SEGMENT

  • VIX: 12.25 - DOWN .25
  • VVIX: 90.3 - UP 1.4 FROM LAST SHOW
  • VXX: 13.4 - UP .5 FROM LAST SHOW 
  • FEATURED DISCUSSION OF VIX AND SPIKES

ODD BLOCK

  • UNIT PUT LOVE
  • MRNA CALL SALE
  • MDT CALL LOVE

MAIL BLOCK

  • QUESTION FROM BILL: HOPEFULLY YOU CAN GO OVER THIS NEXT WEEK BEFORE JAN 23. NLOK (AKA OLD SYMC ) IS PAYING A 12 SPECIAL DIVIDEND WITH EX DATE OF FEB 3RD, SO WHY ARE THE PUTS SO CHEAP? IF THE STOCK IS AROUND 26 BUCKS, WOULDN'T THE 25 OR 26 PUT BE SELLING FOR MORE THAN A BUCK IF WE ASSUME THE STOCK WILL DROP BY 12 BUCKS AFTER THE EX DATE? THANKS
  • QUESTION FROM PAUL M. PAULINO: HELLO, WHAT IS THE OPTION STRATEGY I CAN TAKE IF THE CALL OPTION I BOUGHT DOES NOT GO AS PROJECTED, THAT IS, THE STOCK PRICE GOES DOWN INSTEAD OF GOING UP. OTHER THAN SELLING TO CLOSE THE CALL OPTION, IS THERE ANOTHER ACTION I CAN TAKE TO AVOID THE LOSS. WHEN CAN I HEAR YOUR ANSWER?

AROUND THE BLOCK

WHAT’S ON OUR RADAR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK?

U.S. markets showed strength from the start of trading ahead of the U.S. and China's phase one trade deal official signing ceremony, which took place midday. Although some tariffs will remain in place, the threat of further escalation is out of the picture for now.

White House economic adviser Kudlow said negotiations on Phase Two are expected to begin as soon as the Phase One signatures are complete. Against the backdrop of trade optimism, the big banks continued their earnings procession with two of the largest in the nation reporting solid quarterly results.

The Russell 2000 soared 0.8% following the session run to 1,688 and fresh 52-week peak. Near-term and lower resistance at 1,685-1,700 was cleared but held by less than 3 points.

The Dow was up 0.3% after trading to an intraday all-time high of 29,127. Near-term and lower resistance at 29,000-29,200 was cleared and held with a close above the latter leading to a possible trip towards 29,300-29,500.

The S&P 500 gained 0.2% following the midday push to 3,298. New and lower resistance at 3,300-3,325 was challenged but held for the 2nd-straight session.

The Nasdaq added 0.1% after tapping a first half all-time high of 9,298. Fresh and lower resistance at 9,300-9,350 was challenged but held on the 3rd-straight close above the 9,250 level.

Utilities led sector strength for the 2nd-straight session after zooming 0.6% while Healthcare and Real Estate rose 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Energy and Financials paced sector laggards after sinking 0.7% and 0.6% while Consumer Discretionary fell 0.2% to round out the losers.

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ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES

Five Below (FIVE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Greif (GEF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
Visteon (VC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities
Delphi Technologies (DLPH) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Take-Two (TTWO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens

THURSDAY'S EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS  
Before the open: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Four Seasons Education (FEDU), Home BancShares (HOMB), Insteel Industries (IIIN), Morgan Stanley (MS), PPG Industries (PPG), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), WNS Holdings (WNS)


Bright Scholar Education (BEDU), CSX (CSX), Independent Bank (INDB), Peoples United Financial (PBCT), Progress Software (PGRS)

THURSDAY'S ECONOMIC NEWS
Jobless Claims - 8:30am
Import and Export Prices - 8:30am
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey - 8:30am
Retail Sales - 8:30am
Business Inventories -10:00am

METALS/ OIL
Gold closed at $1,556.30 an ounce,up $11.70
Silver settled at $18.00 an ounce,   up $0.26
Copper finished at $2.87 a pound, up $0.01
Crude Oil was at $57.96 a barrel,
down $0.42
Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ended at $9.99, down $0.04


I hope this helps you prepare for the trading day. Make it a great one!


   Todd Mitchell


Not sure the best way to get started?

Follow these 3 simple steps ...

Step #1: Get These FREE Reports & Videos

Options INCOME  Profits   8 Video  Series    Habits that Kill Traders...



Step #2: Enroll in an Advisory or Educational Program
Premium Advisories | Featured  Educational  Programs 



Step #3: Connect with The Community
Trading Concepts Official Facebook Page

The post Bulls Trip Another Round of All-Time Highs appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

China agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over the next two years as part of the “phase one” trade deal.

The additional purchases will come on top of the 2017 U.S. export numbers.

The deal stipulates that Beijing will buy $77 billion in additional goods and services in 2020 and $123 billion in 2021 to meet the total $200 billion. China bought $186 billion of U.S. goods and services in 2017.

Combined with the new incremental agreement, U.S. exports to China should in theory climb to $263 billion in 2020 and $309 billion in 2021. Either amount would mark a record-breaking acceleration for U.S. exports to China.

The two nations signed the first-phase trade agreement Wednesday afternoon at the White House. The globe’s two largest economies have for the better part of two years slapped tariffs of billions of dollars’ worth of each other’s goods in one of the most protracted trade battles in modern American history.

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The phase one deal is seen as a sort of truce and includes concessions by the Chinese to crack down on intellectual property theft and the forced transfer of American technologies. But it also includes import targets for Beijing, which has promised to buy a host of American products as the two sides work toward a permanent bilateral agreement.

The composition of that additional $200 billion is as follows:

  • Manufactured goods: $32.9 billion in 2020, $44.8 billion in 2021
  • Agricultural goods: $12.5 billion in 2020, $19.5 billion in 2021
  • Energy goods: $18.5 billion in 2020, $33.9 billion in 2021
  • Services: $12.8 billion in 2020, $25.1 billion in 2021
CH 20200115_phase_one_trade_commitments_china.png

Manufactured goods include industrial equipment, electric equipment, pharmaceutical products, vehicles and optical instruments. Agricultural products include oilseeds, meats, cereals, cotton and seafood.

Digging deeper, China agreed to purchase a variety of goods from each major industry, including but not limited to the following:

CH 20200115_chinas_promised_purchases.png

Finer detail, such as the exact value of specific farm purchases (such as soybeans or pork) promised by China over the next two years, could not be ascertained.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/heres-what-china-agreed-to-buy-from-the-us-in-the-phase-one-trade-deal.html

Have a wonderful day and I hope this helps.

The post Here’s what China agreed to buy from the US in the phase one trade deal appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

Roku (ROKU) closed the most recent trading day at $132.50, moving -0.69% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.19% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.31%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.08%.

Heading into today, shares of the video streaming company had lost 1.37% over the past month, lagging the Consumer Discretionary sector's gain of 4.39% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.72% in that time.

Investors will be hoping for strength from ROKU as it approaches its next earnings release. The company is expected to report EPS of -$0.14, down 380% from the prior-year quarter. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $392.43 million, up 42.32% from the year-ago period.

Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for ROKU. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.

Research indicates that these estimate revisions are directly correlated with near-term share price momentum. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.

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The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant. ROKU is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

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Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roku-roku-stock-sinks-market-224510448.html

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Investors have been waiting for details of the “phase one” trade deal, expected to be signed between the U.S. and China Wednesday, but they may already know most of what’s in it and there may be little new.

Stocks have been buoyed by optimism around the deal for weeks now. Tuesday was no different, and the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were at all-time highs before a trade-related headline from a news service rattled markets and sent the indexes into negative territory.

Analysts have said there could be some volatility around the release of the trade deal details. An agreement that is very light on details with no teeth to stop trade abuses could potentially be seen as a negative. So stocks were rattled, when Bloomberg news service Tuesday afternoon reported that tariffs were not expected to be lifted until a phase two deal.

The report also said the phase two deal was not expected until after the November election, but strategists say that was not a surprise, and a market, looking to sniff out a positive surprise, was dealt a temporary setback.

The deal is expected to stop any further tariffs and roll back some 15% tariffs to 7.5% on some Chinese goods.

“There’s always ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ Part of the reason why we had this tremendous, incredible rally last year and especially toward the end of the year, and why we got off to a good start this year, was we had a raft of good news, on earnings, and also on China trade,” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at QMA. “Stocks are not cheap and any bit of news could have an impact on the market.”

Tom Block, Washington policy analyst at Fundstrat, said it is unusual for there to be so few details on a deal that is about to be signed. “Everything I’ve read, and everyone I talked to has said this was basically a standstill agreement with some side things, and we now know one of those side things was that the U.S. dropped that China was a currency manipulator,” he said. “I don’t think that’s a coincidence.”

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Block said the deal could still be being finalized, and if there is a sticking point it could be over how China’s commitment to buying U.S. agricultural products was to be worded. He expects to see an agreement on Chinese purchases of agricultural and energy products. There could also be some language protecting U.S. intellectual property.

“This is a real cease-fire. This is the most substance of cease-fire that we’ve seen,” he said.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, said there was really nothing new in the headline. Stock indexes fluctuated, with the Dow moving back to positive territory.

“It’s not surprising. There was no blueprint to remove the tariffs. We saw that upon the announcement of a deal when they slightly trimmed some of the tariffs from 15% to 7.5% even though they left tariffs on all the existing goods,” Boockvar said. “The assumption was the tariffs would not come off until there was a phase two deal and Trump said the other day there would be no phase two until the after the election. It was always my belief they would not come off until we got a phase two deal. We’re still stuck with these tariffs which are a drag on growth in trade and manufacturing.”

“These tariffs have now become a roach motel,” said Boockvar.

Keon said the market is not really looking for much more on the trade deal. “It looks like we’ll agree to take some tariffs down. We already took them off the currency manipulator list. They’re going to agree to buy some agricultural products., There’s probably some language that says they’ll cooperate on intellectual property. It’s my guess there will be some vague language.”

Block said Trump will leave the door open for further tariffs on Europe but he is not likely to launch any new ones just now.

“He wants NATO to do more in the Middle East, and it’s hard to do that if you’re escalating the trade war,” said Block.

Sourcehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/phase-one-trade-deal-could-be-less-than-market-hopes-tariffs-have-now-become-a-roach-motel.html

Have a genuinely great day and I hope today’s trading article helps you.

The post Phase one trade deal could be less than market hopes: ‘Tariffs have now become a roach motel’ appeared first on Trading Concepts, Inc..

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